Social Risk Mitigation Project Impact Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfers

Social Risk Mitigation Project Impact Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfers
Country: Turkey
Year(Start): 2005
Year(End): 2006
Client: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) /Prime Ministry Social Solidarity Fund (SYDTF)
Financed By: World Bank
Total Consultancy: 33 person/months

Social Risk Mitigation Project (SRMP) is a US$ 500 million project with three following main sub-components: i) Institutional Development Component, ii) Conditional Cash Transfers Component, iii) Local Initiatives Component.

The objectives of the project are:
•    To mitigate the impact of 2000 and 2001 economic crisis on the most vulnerable section of the population,
•    To implement programs aiming at preventing intergenerational transfer of poverty and increase their resistance capacity against similar crises that may occur in the future,
•    To improve the institutional capacity of the state institutions that are engaged in the provision of social services and assistance to our needy citizens.
•    To increase the access of the poor citizens to education and health services
•    To increase sustainable income generating and employability opportunities for poor citizens,
•    To contribute to the improvement of the quality and quantity of the social services provided to the poor citizens.
•    To make the targeting system currently used in social assistance programs in Turkey more scientific, objective and systematic.

The Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program in Turkey is a highly targeted social assistance transfer program that provides an important source of support for the poorest 6 percent of the Turkish Population. The specific objectives of the CCT in Turkey is to reach 1.1 million beneficiaries, increase school attendance rates for the poor, decrease drop-out rates, increase immunization coverage and usage of health facilities.
The key objectives of the evaluation are to (1) assess the effectiveness of the program targeting and its coverage; (2) get an unbiased estimate of the impacts of CCT on an agreed set of indicators, and (3) trace through the pathways by which the Social Solidarity Foundations (SYDTF) achieves its various impacts.
Achieving these objectives requires the completion of several activities, including desk reviews, secondary analyses of existing data and new field data collection. The evaluation will assess the program’s coverage, targeting and effectiveness and will do so using both quantitative and qualitative research methods.
Under this project, AGRIN carried out the design, sampling administration and management of this nation wide household survey  for the purpose of assessing the programme impact, measuring other aspects of the programme such as economic welfare, nutrition status of poorest household etc. The scope of the quantitative and qualitative surveys are briefly explained below.

1) Two Quantitative surveys were conducted with 4493 household (which majority are in-migrants) interviews in 26 provinces, at 52 districts: i) A large, cross-sectional household survey of 2,905 households, which included beneficiaries of the education and child health components; ii) A two-round panel survey of 790 households selected from eligible households.

Following key issues are assessed, analyzed and reported;
•    Household composition; education and migration; schooling; health and immunization; housing; employment; food consumption; ownership of household assets; land ownership and tenure; benefits received from Government Programs; benefits received from Non-governmental organizations; negative shocks (migration, earthquake etc.); positive economic events.
2) Two qualitative surveys were conducted: i) a first qualitative survey for a rapid community assessment in 15 provinces and 87 locations, involving group discussions, in-depth interviews and focus group meetings with relevant stakeholders and beneficiaries/non-beneficiaries. In total, 557 stakeholders were consulted through semi-structured questionnaires, rapid community assessments, and focus groups with mothers, primary school children, secondary school children, fathers and education service providers, as well as governors; ii) a second qualitative study focused on six communities in Diyarbakır, Van and Samsun provinces. In two provinces, one rural and one urban area were selected. In the third province both areas were urban. It concentrated on key issues related to program communications, targeting, education, health, pregnancy, gender relations and other household impacts, and work. Key informants were Social Solidarity Foundation staff, health, education and other service providers, imams, muhtars, and other government officials. Semi-structured interviewing techniques were also employed. Data was recorded in notes and tapes, transcribed and translated, and coded in NVivo Qualitative Data Analysis software.

To achieve the objectives of this study, AGRIN designed the survey methodology and sampling, assisted in finalizing questionnaires, prepared interview manuals and provided training for enumerators and supervisors; supervised field survey, arranged and facilitated focus group meetings, arranged pilot surveys, data entry and data cleaning and assisted in finalizing data analysis and interpretation of the field survey data, as well as preparation of recommendations to overcome the programme and management constraints of the Foundation.

Experts provided;
•    Assistant project manager
•    3 Economists
•    2 Statisticians
•    3 Sociologists
•    2 Anthropologist
•    3 Focus group facilitators

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